إِلَّا تَنفِرُوا۟ يُعَذِّبْكُمْ عَذَابًا أَلِيمًۭا وَيَسْتَبْدِلْ قَوْمًا غَيْرَكُمْ وَلَا تَضُرُّوهُ شَيْـًۭٔا ۗ وَٱللَّهُ عَلَىٰ كُلِّ شَىْءٍۢ قَدِيرٌ
Illaa tanfiroo yu'az zibkum 'azaaban aleemanw wa yastabdil qawman ghairakum wa laa tadurroohu shai'aa; wal laahu 'alaa kulli shai'in Qadeer
If you do not go forth, He will punish you with a painful punishment and will replace you with another people, and you will not harm Him at all. And Allah is over all things competent.

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Tafsir

71%53%61%Al-JalalaynIbn AbbasIbn Kathir
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If illā lā has been assimilated with the nūn of the conditional particle in in both instances here and in the next verse you do not go forth if you do not set out with the Prophet s for the struggle He will chastise you with a painful chastisement and He will substitute you with another folk other than you that is He will bring them in your place and you will not hurt Him that is God or ‘him’ as being the Prophet s at all should you neglect to help him to victory for God Himself will indeed bring victory to His religion; for God has power over all things including bringing victory to His religion and His Prophet.

Related Hadiths

Sahih Muslim #6793Abu Ayyub Ansari reported that Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) said:Sahih
If you were not to commit sins, Allah would have swept you out of existence and would have replaced you by another people who have committed sin, and then asked forgiveness from Allah, and He would have granted them pardon.
Sahih Muslim #6794Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) having said:Sahih
By Him in Whose Hand is my life, if you were not to commit sin, Allah would sweep you out of existence and He would replace (you by) those people who would commit sin and seek forgiveness from Allah, and He would have pardoned them.
Jami` at-Tirmidhi #2237Hudhaifah bin Al-Yaman narrated that the Prophet (s.a.w) said:Hasan
"By the One in Whose Hand is my soul! Either you command good and forbid evil, or Allah will soon send upon you a punishment from Him, then you will call upon Him, but He will not respond to you. "
Sunan Abu Dawud #4341Narrated Jabir ibn Abdullah:Hasan
The Prophet (ﷺ) said: If any man is among a people in whose midst he does acts of disobedience, and, though they are able to make him change (his acts), they do not change, Allah will smite them with punishment before they die.
Sunan Abu Dawud #4340Narrated Abu Bakr:
You people recite this verse "You who believe, care for yourselves; he who goes astray cannot harm you when you are rightly-guided," and put it in its improper place. Khalid's version has: We heard the Prophet (ﷺ) say: When the people see a wrongdoer and do not prevent him, Allah will soon punish them all. Amr ibn Hushaym's version has: I heard the Messenger of Allah (ﷺ) say: If acts of disobedience are done among any people and do not change them though the are able to do so, Allah will soon punish them all. Adu Dawud said: This tradition has also been transmitted by Abu Usamah and a group transmitters similar to the version narrated by Khalid. The version of Shu'bah has: "If acts of obedience are done among any people who are more numerous than those who do them...."

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About Quran 9:39